Quantification and reduction of uncertainties in a wind turbine numerical model based on a global sensitivity analysis and a recursive Bayesian inference approach

Adrien Hirvoas (1) , Clémentine Prieur (2) , Élise Arnaud (2) , Fabien Caleyron (1) , Miguel Munoz Zuniga (1)

1 IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles
2 AIRSEA - Mathematics and computing applied to oceanic and atmospheric flows

A framework to perform quantification and reduction of uncertainties in a wind turbine numerical model using a global sensitivity analysis and a recursive Bayesian inference method is developed in this article. We explain how a prior probability distribution on the model parameters is transformed into a posterior probability distribution, by incorporating a physical model and real field noisy observations. Nevertheless, these approaches suffer from the so-called curse of dimensionality. In order to reduce the dimension, Sobol' indices approach for global sensitivity analysis, in the context of wind turbine modeling, is presented. A major issue arising for such inverse problems is identifiability, that is, whether the observations are sufficient to unambiguously determine the input parameters that generated the observations. Global sensitivity analysis is also used in the context of identifiability.

Keywords: Global sensitivity analysis; inference; model calibration; nonlinear Kalman filters; uncertainty quantification

Domains: Mathematics [math]; Statistics [math.ST]

Adrien Hirvoas, Clémentine Prieur, Élise Arnaud, Fabien Caleyron, Miguel Munoz Zuniga. Quantification and reduction of uncertainties in a wind turbine numerical model based on a global sensitivity analysis and a recursive Bayesian inference approach. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 2021, 122 (10), pp.2528-2544. ⟨10.1002/nme.6630⟩. ⟨hal-03279947v3⟩