Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025

Benoit Chèze (1, 2) , Pascal Gastineau (3) , Julien Chevallier (4, 2)

1 IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles
2 EconomiX - EconomiX
3 INRETS - Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité
4 LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine

This paper provides i) air traffic and ii) Jet-Fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. The general methodology may be summarized in two steps. First, air traffic forecasts are estimated using econometric methods. The modeling is performed for eight geographical zones, by using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Once estimated from historical data, the model is then used to generate air traffic forecasts. Second, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of Jet-Fuel is accomplished using the ‘Traffic Efficiency’ method developed previously by UK DTI to support the IPCC (IPCC (1999)). One of our major contribution consists in proposing an alternative methodology to obtain Energy Efficiency coefficients and energy efficiency improvements estimates based on modeling at the macro-level. These estimates are obtained by directly comparing the evolution of both Jet-Fuel consumption and air traffic time series from 1983 to 2006. According to our ’Business As Usual’ scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of about 4.7%. World Jet-Fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of about 1,9% per year. Air traffic energy efficiency improvements yield effectively to reduce the effect of air traffic rise on the Jet-Fuel demand increase, but do not annihilate it. Thus, Jet-Fuel demand is unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

Domaines: Economies et finances

Benoit Chèze, Pascal Gastineau, Julien Chevallier. Forecasting air traffic and corresponding jet-fuel demande until 2025: Cahiers de l'Economie, Série Recherche, n° 77. 2010. ⟨hal-02489878⟩