Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
New interface
Journal articles

The land use change time-accounting failure

Abstract : This paper builds on the disconnection between scientific evidence and policy assumptions about the temporal profile of land use change (LUC) emissions. Whereas natural scientists find evidence of a decreasing time profile of LUC emissions, European energy policy relies on a steady time profile. We investigate the consequences of using such a uniform (constant) time profile when assessing biofuel projects with cost-benefit analysis, a widespread economic tool for public project assessment. We show that the use of the uniform time profile distorts LUC emissions costs downwards (upwards) when carbon prices grow slower (faster) than the discount rate. We illustrate our results with the conversion of grassland to wheat cultivation for bioethanol production in France. Under current assumptions in public project assessment, we find a 70% overestimation of costs related to direct LUC emissions. We propose two tools to aid in decision-making and address the decision error. Finally, we provide contextual policy recommendations.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata
Contributor : Nadine Couëdel Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, October 18, 2021 - 1:38:50 PM
Last modification on : Friday, September 9, 2022 - 1:53:49 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, January 19, 2022 - 8:41:17 PM


Files produced by the author(s)



Marion Dupoux. The land use change time-accounting failure. Ecological Economics, 2019, 164, pp.106337. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.05.017⟩. ⟨hal-02409626⟩



Record views


Files downloads